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January 27, 2005

Iraqi Election Forecast

Iraq Flag

Iraq’s Transitional National Assembly Elections


Election Definition:

    The Iraqi people will elect a 275-member Transitional National Assembly. The Assembly will:

    • Serve as Iraq’s national legislature.
    • Name a Presidency Council, consisting of a President and two Vice Presidents. (By unanimous agreement, the Presidency Council will appoint a Prime Minister and, on his recommendation, cabinet ministers.)
    • Draft Iraq’s new constitution, which will be presented to the Iraqi people for their approval in a national referendum in October 2005. Under the new constitution, Iraq will elect a permanent government in December 2005. (Whitehouse)

    How will seats be assigned? (source)

    Seats in the national assembly are distributed according to the proportion of votes each list receives. For example, if list “X” gets 32 percent of the vote, then that list is entitled to 32 percent of the assembly’s 275 seats, which is 88 seats. To fill those seats, list “X” would put forward the first 88 names on its list. (Candidates vied intensely for high placement on lists during registration.) The UN mandated that every third name on lists is a woman to ensure that there would be female legislators.

Voting requirements:

    1. Identity. Identity can be proven by a document issued by a state, state agency or international institution, which contains a recognizable photograph of the applicant. This may include, for example: Iraqi or foreign passport or ID Card, Driver’s License, government-issued refugee identification (refugee ID Card or official travel document).
    2. Voting Age. Applicants must be born on or before 31 December 1986 (18 years old); and
    3. Iraqi nationality. In order to prove Iraqi nationality, applicants must present a document or documents issued by state, state agency, international institution or organisations such as the International Red Cross, which fulfil one of the following:

    3.1 Birth in Iraq
    Applicants must present a document which lists place of birth as in Iraq.
    Or
    3.2 Current or previous citizenship of Iraq
    Applicants must present a document which lists citizenship or nationality.
    Or
    3.3 Birth to father of Iraqi nationality
    Applicants must present a document or documents which show parental link plus father’s nationality as Iraqi. The father’s Registration Receipt may be accepted as proof of father’s nationality.

    ** - To vote you must first register.

    (Source)

People:

    Total population: 25,374,691 (July 2004 est.)

    0-14 years: 40.3% (male 5,198,966; female 5,039,173) = 10,238,139
    15-64 years: 56.7% (male 7,280,167; female 7,094,688) = 14,374,855
    65 years and over: 3% (male 357,651; female 404,046) (2004 est.) = 761,697

    Breakdown:
    Muslim 97% (Shi’a 60%-65%, Sunni 32%-37%); Christian or other 3%
    Arab 75%-80%; Kurdish 15%-20%; Turkoman, Assyrian or other 5%

    (Cia World Factbook)

Registration:

    Eligible Iraqi voters: 14.3 million (says registered but i think it is eligible) (source)
    Eligible exiles: 1.2 Million (source)

    Registered voters: Most places are listing 14.3 million registered (I’m guessing that you don’t have to register to be registered)
    Out of country registered voters: 280,303 (source)
    ** - out of country will start voting Jan. 28th

The Vote:

    Approximately 6,500 voting centers across Iraq.

    111 political entities have submitted candidate lists for the national elections, and a total of 256 political entities composed of 18,900 candidates have registered to compete in the national election, 18 provincial elections, and the Kurdistan Regional government election. The 256 entities include 27 individuals, 33 coalitions of parties, and 196 independent parties, demonstrating widespread enthusiasm for the political process.

    Who will vote?
    from Christian Science Monitor

    Weather Forecast:

      Baghdad:
      Sunday - Scattered Clouds. High: 66° F / 19° C Wind SSE 11 mph / 18 km/h
      Sunday Night - Scattered Clouds. Low: 48° F / 9° C Wind SE 17 mph / 28 km/h


      Mosul:
      Sunday - Scattered Clouds. High: 57° F / 14° C Wind SSE 8 mph / 14 km/h
      Sunday Night - Chance of Rain. Low: 42° F / 6° C Wind South 8 mph / 14 km/h


      Basrah:
      Sunday - Scattered Clouds. High: 69° F / 21° C Wind SSE 4 mph / 7 km/h
      Sunday Night - Scattered Clouds. Low: 46° F / 8° C Wind SSE 11 mph / 18 km/h
      (Weather Underground)

Odds:

    List favorites:

      The Iraqi list - No. 285
      This list is headed by appointed interim prime minister and current American favorite Iyad Allawi, a secular Shiite doctor and former Baathist.

      The Kurdish alliance - no. 130
      This electoral list could come close to sweeping the roughly 15 percent of Iraqi voters who are Kurds.

      The Iraqis list - No. 255
      This group is headed by appointed interim President Ghazi al-Yawar, a prominent member of the Shammar, one of Iraq’s largest tribes.

    Turnout:

      History:

      In transitional elections not beset by war, turnout typically tops 70 percent*. (source)
      * - That would translate to approximately 9.8 million

      Tradesports:

      Iraqi Election turnout 8,000,000+
      Last Trade: 71 (meaning 71% likelihood the turnout will be at least 8 million)
      Update (1/28 12:10PM): Last Trade: 66
      Update (1/28 5:55PM): Last Trade: 61
      Update (1/29 1:18AM): Last Trade: 41.5
      Update(1/29 12:09PM): Last Trade: 47.5
      Update(1/29 7:34PM): Last Trade: 51.8
      Update(1/30 1:02AM): Last Trade: 54.0
      Iraq bet 1

      Iraq bet 2

Post Election:

  • The votes will be tabulated and winners declared.
  • The Transitional National Assembly will be seated.
  • The Assembly will appoint a Presidency Council, consisting of a President and two Deputy Presidents.
  • The Presidency Council will appoint a Prime Minister and-on his or her recommendation-cabinet ministers to run the Iraqi government’s various ministries.
  • The Prime Minister and his cabinet must receive a vote of confidence by a simple majority of the Transitional National Assembly before commencing work as a government.
  • The Transitional National Assembly will draft a new Iraqi constitution.
  • The draft constitution is to be presented to the Iraqi people for approval in a national referendum in October 2005.
  • (source)

TV Coverage

    Friday:

      CNN Special Report - “Iraq Votes” 6pm CST

    Saturday:

      FNC: Iraq: Decision Day 1pm, 3pm, 7pm, 8pm, 10pm CST

    Sunday:

      CNN: Iraq Elections: 12am - 4am, 4am - 8am CST
      MSNBC Live Coverage: Iraqi Elections 5am - 5pm CST

More:

The OTB Guide to the Iraqi Elections

From OTB:

Public Opinion

  • About 65% of Iraqis are “very likely” to vote; 17% are “somewhat likely.”
  • In Baghdad, 58% are “very likely”; 17% are “somewhat likely.”
  • In Kurdish areas, 74% are “very likely”; 18% are “somewhat likely.”
  • In Sunni areas, 21% are “very likely”; 32% are “somewhat likely.”
  • Among Shiites, 77% are “very likely”; 14% are “somewhat likely.”
  • Among Kurds, 71% are “very likely”; 19% are “somewhat likely.”
  • Among Sunnis, 20% are “very likely”; 29% are somewhat likely”; and 29% are “very unlikely.”

Paul from Wizbang’s analysis of ‘the numbers’.

GOPBlogger Scott: “News coverage has shifted from death and despair to hope and promise. ”

Steve from Secure Liberty: “Sounds like the seed of democracy is not just planted, it has sprouted.”

Powerline predicts Saturday violence.

Pajama Hadin has a great roundup which includes links to Iraqi bloggers.

The Belgravia Dispatch has some quotes from Iraqis on election eve. (via Instapundit)

Eric Anderson at 10:03 pm

All original content ©2005 Slowplay.com - All Rights Reserved.



Comments »

  1. Very nice work. And thanks for the link.

    Comment by Robert Tagorda — January 28, 2005 @ 12:36 am




  2. I like the information, it’s really impressive

    Comment by Frank Finley — February 5, 2005 @ 9:06 am




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    Comment by Wizbang — January 28, 2005 @ 6:54 am

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